Understanding Adaptation Decision-Making: Influences on Climate Risk Response in Household,
Community, and Protected Area Contexts

Project Overview

Natalie's dissertation research explores themes related to climate adaptation action and decision-making to build resilience to climate risks and impacts. Her dissertation includes three studies that investigate these challenges by examining adaptation risk, action, and decision-making in wildland-urban interface (WUI) households and communities and U.S. National Parks

Household Wildfire Adaptation Action in Boulder, CO

Growing wildfire risks are increasing losses and damages to wildland-urban interface households in the American West. In Colorado, the December 2021 Marshall Fire destroyed over 1,000 suburban homes and became the most destructive fire in the state’s history and the 10th costliest in US history. Fortunately, homeowner adaptation action can play a significant role in preventing structural damage or loss that can come from a wildfire. Yet, social and cognitive factors influence adaptation behaviors, and action is more effective when coordinated across a community. In partnership with the City of Boulder Open Space and Mountain Parks Department and Boulder Fire-Rescue, we distributed a household survey in Boulder, which was near but not within the burn area of the Marshall Fire. Using multilevel regression analysis, we explored the role of social and cognitive factors in motivating both the number of adopted adaptation actions and the adoption of specific actions at the household scale. Our analysis points to the role of outcome efficacy and personal responsibility as correlates of homeowner adaptation action to wildfire. We also collaborated with CU Boulder researchers who facilitated focus groups in Boulder during the time of our analysis. The focus group data lend nuance and insight into our model results and highlight the role of extreme weather and perceptions of community inaction as drivers of low outcome efficacy beliefs and household inaction. Our findings point to the importance of collective action for wildfire as a tool to increase outcome efficacy perceptions and drive action at the household level.

Climate Adaptation Decision-Making Uncertainties at U.S. National Parks

Research has shown that decision-makers struggle with uncertainty around climate change. This holds true for managers within the US National Park Service, who are responsible for navigating changing ecological conditions and uncertainty and safeguarding unique natural and cultural resources. Climate change-related risks are already impacting parks across the country, as seen through recent extreme flooding at Yellowstone National Park and wildfire at Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks. The National Park Service Climate Change Response Program (CCRP) provides park managers with downscaled, forward looking climate change information specific to parks, alongside guidance on applying this information to address uncertainty. Questions remain, however, as to how park managers are using this information and how CCRP can best communicate climate projection data to park manager audiences. Through semi-structured interviews with staff across several parks, we explored manager climate change information and communication needs and their use of climate change information in planning. We also queried how the delivery of climate change information and projection data inform manager perceptions around climate change risk, complexity, efficacy, and hopefulness. Our findings indicate best practices for CCRP and other organizations for communicating complex climate-related information to manager audiences to inform decision-making.

Home Assessment Outcomes and Sociodemographic Factors in the Wildland-Urban Interface

Community context and structural/sociodemographic characteristics shape and inform adaptive capacity and adaptation action. However, these factors have been understudied in the context of wildfire. Understanding the role of sociodemographic factors in wildland-urban interface community adaptation risk and action can help build communities that are fire-adapted. As the composition of the wildland-urban continues to change due to amenity migration and other factors, it is especially important to consider sociodemographic characteristics in order to ensure equitable adaptation. We are addressing this gap through analysis of a large dataset of household adaptation actions and dimensions in over 100 communities collected via a private sector wildfire home assessment software and paired with publicly available U.S. Census demographic data. The use of publicly available data can create a framework for other scholars and practitioners to easily assess potential sociodemographic drivers or barriers to adaptation action in their communities without undertaking time- and resource-intensive qualitative research.